HPAI Persists Across US and European Poultry Sectors

Continued highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks are disrupting egg and poultry markets on both sides of the Atlantic — compounding trade access restrictions, input cost pressures, and a structural shift in competitive advantage toward HPAI-free suppliers.

HPAI is no longer a discrete outbreak event with a defined resolution timeline - it is becoming a persistent endemic condition across Northern Hemisphere poultry systems, with each successive wave extending the competitive disadvantage of affected exporters relative to HPAI-free suppliers. The signal is rated Emerging Trend rather than Structural Shift because the regulatory and commercial consequences are still compounding rather than fully resolved. The inflection point that would upgrade this to Structural Shift is a decision by either the EU or USDA to advance a commercially approved HPAI poultry vaccine — an outcome that would fundamentally change the biosecurity calculus for affected exporters. Until that decision is made, the competitive gap between HPAI-affected and HPAI-free suppliers will continue to widen.

SIGNAL

Highly pathogenic avian influenza continues to circulate actively across US and European commercial poultry systems in early 2026, maintaining supply pressure in egg and poultry markets that have not fully recovered from the 2024–25 outbreak cycle. In the United States, approximately 12.4 million commercial layer hens have been depopulated in 2026 to date, limiting the supply recovery that producers and buyers had anticipated following the extreme price volatility of 2024 and early 2025. In Europe, 78 commercial poultry flocks across 10 countries were confirmed HPAI-positive within the first four weeks of 2026 alone, with Great Britain recording 90 commercial and hobby flock outbreaks since October 2025. A new dimension has emerged with the detection of HPAI antibodies in a dairy cow in the Netherlands — the first such finding in Europe — raising biosecurity concerns that extend beyond the poultry sector. The response capacity of both the US and EU regulatory systems is under pressure: USDA federal workforce reductions have affected key animal health laboratory functions, while the scale and geographic spread of outbreaks across Europe is stretching national veterinary authority resources.

EVIDENCE

• US commercial layer hen depopulations in 2026 year-to-date total approximately 12.4 million birds, limiting supply recovery and contributing to a seasonal upward price move from early-2026 lows of approximately US$1.00 per dozen toward US$2.00 per dozen (LEAP Market Analytics, Q1 2026)
• Within the first four weeks of 2026, 78 commercial poultry flocks across 10 European countries were confirmed HPAI-positive, with Poland recording 22 outbreaks, Germany 15, and Belgium 10 (EC Animal Disease Information System, January 2026)
• Great Britain recorded 90 HPAI outbreaks in commercial and hobby flocks between October 2025 and late January 2026, according to APHA reporting to WOAH
• HPAI antibodies were detected in a dairy cow at a Dutch farm in early 2026 — the first such finding in Europe, following similar cross-species transmission events in the US dairy sector (WOAH)
• Foodservice buyers who switched to liquid and processed egg products during the 2024–25 price spike have largely not reverted to shell eggs, suppressing demand recovery and creating a structural shift in egg product consumption patterns (LEAP Market Analytics)
• USDA federal workforce reductions have affected the FDA's Veterinary Laboratory Investigation and Response Network and other animal health functions, creating response capacity gaps during an active outbreak (CSIS, April 2025)
• Brazil's commercial poultry plants have maintained HPAI-free status since May 2025, providing uninterrupted and expanding market access at a time when US and European competitors face active trade restrictions across multiple import markets

IMPLICATION

The persistence of HPAI across Northern Hemisphere poultry systems is producing a reordering of competitive advantage in global poultry and egg trade that is moving faster than the regulatory response. Countries maintaining HPAI-free status - most consequentially Brazil - continue to expand market access and volume into markets where outbreak-affected suppliers have been suspended or restricted. Each additional month of HPAI circulation deepens the commercial relationships and supply chain infrastructure that HPAI-free suppliers are building in those markets, raising the switching cost for importers to return to previously preferred suppliers even after outbreaks are resolved. For export agencies in HPAI-affected markets, the two strategic questions are immediate and concrete: first, which import markets have suspended purchases from affected origins, and what is the realistic timeline for reinstatement; second, whether national vaccination strategies are being advanced at regulatory level and on what timeline. Without a commercially approved and trade-compatible HPAI vaccine, the biosecurity gap between affected and unaffected suppliers is not a temporary disadvantage - it is a compounding structural one.

Sources: LEAP Market Analytics Spring 2026 Egg Market Overview and Outlook · EC Animal Disease Information System (January 2026) · APHA / WOAH (January 2026) · CSIS — How Is Bird Flu Impacting Agriculture and Food Security in the United States? (April 2025) · USDA APHIS · WATTPoultry.com (January–March 2026)