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The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) has been postponed for the second consecutive year. Large operators must comply by December 30, 2026; small enterprises by June 30, 2027. A European Commission simplification review due April 30, 2026 may furthe
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Brazil is on course for its third consecutive record soybean harvest at 178–184 million MT in 2025-26. China sourced 74% of its global soybean imports from Brazil in January–October 2025. Chinese state capital is now financing Latin American port inf
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China's new three-year beef safeguard regime — effective January 1, 2026 — imposes country-specific import quotas and a 55% over-quota tariff. Brazil and Australia face allocations materially below their 2025 shipment volumes, triggering a redistribu
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The US Centers for Disease Control has confirmed HPAI H5N1 is endemic in North American wild birds, meaning annual seasonal reinfection of commercial poultry flocks is now structurally locked in. The 2024-25 season cost US consumers US$14.5 billion i
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The FAO Food Price Index averaged 125.3 points in February 2026 — up 0.9% from January — ending a five-month declining trend. Ovine meat prices reached a new all-time record. Bovine meat firmed on strong Chinese and US demand. The reversal signals th
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A 6.5% surge in the global fertilizer index in March 2026 — triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade and China's simultaneous export ban on nitrogen-potassium and phosphate — has created a severe input cost shock at the most critical point in the N
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A 21% surge in global fertilizer prices driven by simultaneous Chinese export restrictions and Middle East supply disruption is creating a severe input cost shock ahead of the Northern Hemisphere planting season.
Signals shaping global food markets
The EU Deforestation Regulation's second postponement extends the compliance deadline to December 2026. The April 2026 simplification review may further alter scope and due diligence requirements.
HPAI H5N1 continues to impact US and European poultry sectors with ongoing flock depopulations reshaping egg supply chains, trade restrictions, and competitive dynamics.
China has effectively ceased purchasing US agricultural commodities, completing an 8-year diversification strategy. Brazilian and Argentine suppliers absorb the redirected demand.
Brazil now dominates global beef, pork, and poultry exports simultaneously — a structural first. Four key drivers are cementing this position through 2030.
China's three-year beef safeguard caps imports with country-specific quotas and 55% over-quota tariffs. Brazil and Australia face displacement and are redirecting significant volumes.
The FAO Food Price Index posts its first gain in five months, driven by structural meat price rises. Sugar hits a five-year low as India's corn export emergence reshapes starch markets.
EUDR postponed twice and scope narrowed, with April 2026 simplification review potentially altering due diligence requirements for soy, beef, cocoa and coffee supply chains.
WTO MC14 convenes in Yaoundé with no agriculture consensus for the third consecutive ministerial. Bilateral deals continue to fill the gap as multilateral trade rules stall.
HPAI H5N1 spreads across North America and Europe during peak wild bird migration season. Active outbreaks across 14 US states and multiple EU countries disrupt poultry supply chains.
US tariff escalation accelerates the structural realignment of Brazil-China commodity trade. American farm sector faces mounting losses as soy, beef and corn flows permanently redirect.
EU Council formally enacts the agricultural safeguard mechanism for EU-Mercosur. Provisional application begins with preferential tariffs for beef, poultry, soy, sugar and ethanol.
A new HPAI outbreak in Pennsylvania threatens the fragile US egg market recovery. Supply chain vulnerability and biosecurity gaps keep egg prices structurally elevated.