El Nino hardens toward a 2.9C event while the Indian Ocean amplifier retreats from threshold for a third time
The Pacific signal is unambiguous and strengthening. The Bureau of Meteorology reported a relative Nino3.4 index of +2.20 degrees Celsius for the week ending 9 August 2026, well above its +0.80 degrees Celsius El Nino threshold and consistent with a…