Global wheat market loses primary residual supplier into a tightening 2026/27 balance sheet. WASDE-671 projects 1,561 million bushels — lowest since 1972. Wheat futures limit-up.
A drought-driven yield failure in the US Southern Plains has pushed Kansas HRW production to a projected 31% decline from trendline, with the May 12 WASDE set to crystallise the damage in the first official 2026/27 global supply estimate.
Over 30% of global urea exports transit the Strait of Hormuz. With maritime traffic severely disrupted at the start of the Northern Hemisphere planting window, yield consequences will become visible at harvest.
Brazil, the US, and the EU are all in the contraction phase of their cattle cycles at the same time. This configuration has not occurred in the past decade. The supply consequences will extend through 2027.