supply - Global Food Observatory

June WASDE cuts US wheat to 1.543 billion bushels — global balance sheet tightens as El Niño opens Southern Hemisphere risk window

USDA's June 2026 WASDE lowered US all-wheat production by a further 18 million bushels from the May estimate, pushing the 2026/27 balance sheet further into structural deficit territory at the moment El Niño is confirmed and the Southern Hemisphere planting calendar opens.

14 Jun 2026 Read signal →

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FAO's first 2026/27 forecast cuts world cereal output 2% as global trade turns lower

The opening balance sheet for the new season shows production and trade contracting together — led by wheat — after a year of expansion. World cereal production is forecast at 2,982 million tonnes, down 2% year on year.

7 Jun 2026 Read signal →

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USDA May WASDE prints smallest US wheat crop since 1972 as HRW collapses 36%

Global wheat market loses primary residual supplier into a tightening 2026/27 balance sheet. WASDE-671 projects 1,561 million bushels — lowest since 1972. Wheat futures limit-up.

17 May 2026 Read signal →

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World Bank forecasts six-year commodity low — but agricultural inputs are moving in the opposite direction

The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook, released on 14 April 2026, forecasts aggregate commodity prices falling to a six-year low by the end of 2026, driven by an anticipated 1.2 million barrel per day oil surplus. The food-agriculture subset is

19 Apr 2026 Read signal →

signals.

June WASDE cuts US wheat to 1.543 billion bushels — global balance sheet tightens as El Niño opens Southern Hemisphere risk window

FAO's first 2026/27 forecast cuts world cereal output 2% as global trade turns lower

USDA May WASDE prints smallest US wheat crop since 1972 as HRW collapses 36%

World Bank forecasts six-year commodity low — but agricultural inputs are moving in the opposite direction