USDA cuts its 2026/27 Indonesian palm oil forecast to 45 million tonnes as NOAA confirms rainfall suppression. Forward supply risk is increasing, but the forecast is not a measured harvest loss.
AMIS's historical analysis finds global rice yields typically 1.0–1.5% below trend in El Niño years. It is a framework for this season, not a confirmed forecast of losses.
AMIS's historical analysis finds global rice yields typically 1.0–1.5% below trend in El Niño years. It is a framework for this season, not a confirmed forecast of losses.
Indonesia's weather agency expects the rainy season to start later than usual across 61% of the country. The delay adds risk to the main rice planting window.
Peru's El Niño commission has raised its forecast again. ENFEN's latest communiqué, issued on 14 September, says the coastal El Niño in the Niño 1+2 region is most likely to reach extraordinary magnitude between September 2026 and January 2027, and…
India's monsoon is on track for its weakest seasonal finish since 2009. The India Meteorological Department has confirmed a cumulative rainfall deficit running through August, with several independent tallies putting the shortfall in the 13–16%…
The World Meteorological Organization said on 3 September that El Niño will almost certainly persist through February 2027 and is forecast to strengthen to very strong intensity before peaking late this year — language WMO itself characterised as…
The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia cut its 2026 production estimates for the state's wheat crop by half a million tonnes to 9 million tonnes, and for barley by nearly a million tonnes to 6.1 million tonnes, in its August crop report…
The Pacific signal is unambiguous and strengthening. The Bureau of Meteorology reported a relative Nino3.4 index of +2.20 degrees Celsius for the week ending 9 August 2026, well above its +0.80 degrees Celsius El Nino threshold and consistent with a…
The Climate Prediction Center has moved past the question of whether this event is strong and has begun quantifying whether it is unprecedented. The 13 August discussion carries a greater than 90% probability of a very strong El Nino during the…
NOAA raised the probability of a below normal Atlantic hurricane season from 55% to 75%, meaning the same oceanic anomaly threatening Southern Hemisphere crops is at the same time reducing disruption risk to the largest grain export corridor in the Northern Hemisphere.
Cumulative rainfall recovered to 1% above normal by the end of July, yet 42% of Indian districts recorded deficient rainfall, and the weather office now forecasts August and September below normal, keeping rice and sugar output exposed despite a headline that looks resolved.