JRC MARS identifies persistent drought across western Ukraine during critical reproductive stages of winter wheat and barley. War-driven area reductions mean production runs near the five-year average even where yields hold.
NOAA's 11 June 2026 El Niño Advisory confirms conditions are present and expected to strengthen, with a 63% probability of a very strong event by November–January — placing the next Southern Hemisphere planting window directly in the primary risk zone.
The southwest monsoon finally reached Kerala three days late — and the meteorological agency is now forecasting below-normal rains with a better-than-even chance of a deficient season, threatening global rice and sugar markets.
Peak Niño 3.4 anomaly now projected at +3°C around November 2026 — exceeding both the 1997 and 2015 super events. Subsurface Kelvin wave running warmer than either prior event at equivalent stage.