As the EU-Mercosur iTA opens preferential EU access for South American beef and soy from May 2026, the EUDR requires those same products to be verified as deforestation-free by December 2026. Quota allocation and market access are not the same thing.
Brazil, the US, and the EU are all in the contraction phase of their cattle cycles at the same time. This configuration has not occurred in the past decade. The supply consequences will extend through 2027.
The FAO Dairy Price Index has posted its first increase since July 2025. SMP and WMP have trended upward since January. The 2025 correction is over. The question is how durable the recovery will be.
China's 55% over-quota tariff and 2.7 million tonne import cap are set below 2025 actual flows. Brazil faces up to $3 billion in lost export revenue. The redirection of those volumes is the central beef trade story of 2026.
After 25 years of negotiation, the EU-Mercosur interim deal is now law. South American exporters gain preferential EU access on 1 May. Parliamentary ratification remains contested. The trade flows will not wait.
The FAO Food Price Index rose 2.4% in March, driven by energy-cost transmission from the Near East conflict. Contained for now — structurally dangerous if the conflict persists beyond the FAO's 40-day threshold.
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) has been postponed for the second consecutive year. Large operators must comply by December 30, 2026; small enterprises by June 30, 2027. A European Commission simplification review due April 30, 2026 may furthe
Brazil is on course for its third consecutive record soybean harvest at 178–184 million MT in 2025-26. China sourced 74% of its global soybean imports from Brazil in January–October 2025. Chinese state capital is now financing Latin American port inf
China's new three-year beef safeguard regime — effective January 1, 2026 — imposes country-specific import quotas and a 55% over-quota tariff. Brazil and Australia face allocations materially below their 2025 shipment volumes, triggering a redistribu
The US Centers for Disease Control has confirmed HPAI H5N1 is endemic in North American wild birds, meaning annual seasonal reinfection of commercial poultry flocks is now structurally locked in. The 2024-25 season cost US consumers US$14.5 billion i
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 125.3 points in February 2026 — up 0.9% from January — ending a five-month declining trend. Ovine meat prices reached a new all-time record. Bovine meat firmed on strong Chinese and US demand. The reversal signals th
A 6.5% surge in the global fertilizer index in March 2026 — triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade and China's simultaneous export ban on nitrogen-potassium and phosphate — has created a severe input cost shock at the most critical point in the N